Zamboni
06-30-06, 09:08 PM
Of particular import in the last few days of the Lost Experience was the discovery that autistic savants and renowned mathematicians are working on the mathematical forecasting initiative to study the Valenzetti equation, which can be used to extrapolate the future of the human race (including the apocalypse). The specific purpose of the DHARMA initiative, as I proposed in Heuristics Theory (http://www.losttv-forum.com/forum/showthread.php?t=21941), is to create a prototype of the future of humanity to establish a utopian society after an apocalypse either completely engineered or accelerated by the Hanso Foundation.
But the more that is reveaed about the Mathematical Forecasting initiative, which uses advanced mathematical algorithms to predict the future, the more I am reminded of the Foundation Series by Isaac Asimov. I will provide the following (edited for length) summarization of the main thrusts of the plot from wikipedia and allow you to draw your own conclusions.
BTW, here is the link to the full wikipedia article. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_Series)
The premise of the series is that Hari Seldon (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hari_Seldon) has spent his life developing a branch of mathematics (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematics) known as psychohistory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29), a concept devised by Asimov and his editor John W. Campbell (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_W._Campbell). Using the law of mass action (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_action_%28sociology%29), it can predict the future, but only on a large scale; it is useless for anything smaller than a planet or an empire. Using these techniques, Seldon foresees the fall of the Galactic Empire (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galactic_Empire_%28Asimov%29), which encompasses the entire Milky Way (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milky_Way), and a dark age (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_age) lasting thirty thousand years before a second great empire arises. To shorten the period of barbarism, he decides to create the Foundation, a small secluded haven of technology on the planet Terminus (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminus_%28planet%29), to preserve knowledge of the physical sciences after the collapse. If done properly, only a thousand years would be required before the next empire is established.
The early stories are very closely based on Edward Gibbon's (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Gibbon) The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_History_of_the_Decline_and_Fall_of_the_Roman_E mpire) (Asimov said he did "a little bit of cribbin' from the works of Edward Gibbon" when describing the influence of that work on the Trilogy).
In many ways, the Foundation series is unique as a science fiction novel. The focus of the books are certainly the trends through which a civilization might progress, specifically seeking to analyze how they might progress over time using history as a precedent. Although many science fiction novels such as Nineteen Eighty-Four (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four) or Fahrenheit 451 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fahrenheit_451) do this, they typically do so by how current trends in society might come to fruition, and act as a moral allegory on the modern world. The Foundation series, on the other hand, typically looks at the trends in a wider scope, not necessarily looking at what the societies change into, but how they change and adapt. Furthermore, the concept of psychohistory, which gives the events in the story a sense of rational fatalism, leaves little room for moralization, as events are often treated as inevitable and necessary rather than deviations from the greater good. For example, the Foundation slides gradually into oligarchy and dictatorship prior to the appearance of the Mule, but, for the most part, the book treats that change as being necessary in Hari Seldon's plan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seldon_Plan), rather than mulling over whether it is on the whole positive or negative.
The book also wrestles with the idea of individualism. Hari Seldon's plan is often treated as an inevitable mechanism of society, a vast mindless mob mentality of quintillions of humans across the galaxy, and many in the series struggle against it only to fail. However, the plan itself is reliant upon cunning individuals like Salvor Hardin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salvor_Hardin) and Hober Mallow (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hober_Mallow) to make wise decisions, and capitalize on the trends. The Mule, a single individual with remarkable powers, topples the Foundation and nearly destroys the Seldon plan with his special, unforeseen abilities. In order to repair the damage the Mule inflicts, the Second Foundation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Foundation) deploys a plan which also turns upon individual reactions. Hari Seldon himself hopes that his Plan will "reduce 30,000 years of dark ages and barbarism to a single millennium." Psychohistory is based on group trends, and cannot predict with sufficient accuracy the effects of these individuals, and the Second Foundation's true purpose was to counter this flaw.
The following is a description of the inventor of Psychohistory, Hari Seldon, and of the science he developed.
Hari Seldon is the Intellectual hero of the foundation sereies. In his capacity as mathematics professor at Streeling University on Trantor, he developed psychohistory , allowing him to predict the future in probabilistic terms. His ability to predict disasters is the reason behind his nickname "Raven" Seldon.
Psychohistory is the name of a fictional science, which combined history (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History), psychology (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychology) and mathematical statistics (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics), in Isaac Asimov (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Asimov)'s Foundation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_Trilogy) universe, to create a (nearly) exact science of the actions of very large groups of people, such as the Galactic Empire (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galactic_Empire_%28Asimov%29). Asimov used the analogy of a gas (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas): in a gas, the motion of a single molecule is very difficult to predict, but the mass action (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_action) of the gas can be predicted to a high level of accuracy. Asimov applied this concept to the population of the fictional Galactic Empire, which numbered in the quadrillions (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadrillion). The character responsible for the science's creation, Hari Seldon (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hari_Seldon), established two postulates: that the population whose behaviour was modeled should be sufficiently large and that they should remain in ignorance of the results of the application of psychohistorical analyses.
Literary critics have described Asimov's psychohistory as a reformulation, either for better or worse, of Karl Marx (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx)'s theory of history, though Asimov denied any direct influence.[1] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29#_note-0) Psychohistory also also has echoes of work in the social sciences that by the 1960s would lead to attempts at large-scale social prediction and control such as Project Camelot (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Camelot) and modernization theory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modernization_theory).
We can obviously draw paralells here. Hari Seldon can be extrapolated to Enzo Valenzetti, and the character of Salvor Hardin (which actually sounds quite a bit like Alvar Hanso) helped forge the Foundation into what would save the galaxy.
Unfortunately, the foundation (and the galaxy) had their plans disrupted by a psychic known as "The Mule" who was able to manipulate and turn people's minds. He conquered the Galaxy and distorted the Foundation's mission to serve his own purpose.
Somehow, that sounds a bit like Thomas Mittlewerk. Thomas has apparently derailed the mission of the Hanso Foundation to suit his own needs, and it also appears that Alvar Hanso is missing. Mittelwerk also appears to be a very persuasive individual. Early casting descriptions for the character of "Thomas Jackson", who many people believe to be Mittlewerk, describe him as:
THOMAS JACKSON
Early to mid-40s.
A child prodigy in the sciences, Thomas Jackson soon learned that he could get as far in the world through Machiavellian diplomacy as with his intellect. Jackson is a friendly, convivial man - the kind of guy who can pour you a cup of coffee while making the argument that mass murder is a good thing... and you might just believe him.
Always pleasant and agreeable, Thomas Jackson is a consummate manipulator of people and events - never one to raise his voice or resort to anger, he is quite simply armed with the strength of his conviction and the power of his ideas...which would be fine, if his ideas weren't absolutely dangerous...
I'll update this theory as I get more ideas. As it is, lets count this as a supplemental allegorical comparison which goes hand-in-hand with Heuristics Theory.
But the more that is reveaed about the Mathematical Forecasting initiative, which uses advanced mathematical algorithms to predict the future, the more I am reminded of the Foundation Series by Isaac Asimov. I will provide the following (edited for length) summarization of the main thrusts of the plot from wikipedia and allow you to draw your own conclusions.
BTW, here is the link to the full wikipedia article. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_Series)
The premise of the series is that Hari Seldon (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hari_Seldon) has spent his life developing a branch of mathematics (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematics) known as psychohistory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29), a concept devised by Asimov and his editor John W. Campbell (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_W._Campbell). Using the law of mass action (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_action_%28sociology%29), it can predict the future, but only on a large scale; it is useless for anything smaller than a planet or an empire. Using these techniques, Seldon foresees the fall of the Galactic Empire (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galactic_Empire_%28Asimov%29), which encompasses the entire Milky Way (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milky_Way), and a dark age (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_age) lasting thirty thousand years before a second great empire arises. To shorten the period of barbarism, he decides to create the Foundation, a small secluded haven of technology on the planet Terminus (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminus_%28planet%29), to preserve knowledge of the physical sciences after the collapse. If done properly, only a thousand years would be required before the next empire is established.
The early stories are very closely based on Edward Gibbon's (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Gibbon) The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_History_of_the_Decline_and_Fall_of_the_Roman_E mpire) (Asimov said he did "a little bit of cribbin' from the works of Edward Gibbon" when describing the influence of that work on the Trilogy).
In many ways, the Foundation series is unique as a science fiction novel. The focus of the books are certainly the trends through which a civilization might progress, specifically seeking to analyze how they might progress over time using history as a precedent. Although many science fiction novels such as Nineteen Eighty-Four (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four) or Fahrenheit 451 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fahrenheit_451) do this, they typically do so by how current trends in society might come to fruition, and act as a moral allegory on the modern world. The Foundation series, on the other hand, typically looks at the trends in a wider scope, not necessarily looking at what the societies change into, but how they change and adapt. Furthermore, the concept of psychohistory, which gives the events in the story a sense of rational fatalism, leaves little room for moralization, as events are often treated as inevitable and necessary rather than deviations from the greater good. For example, the Foundation slides gradually into oligarchy and dictatorship prior to the appearance of the Mule, but, for the most part, the book treats that change as being necessary in Hari Seldon's plan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seldon_Plan), rather than mulling over whether it is on the whole positive or negative.
The book also wrestles with the idea of individualism. Hari Seldon's plan is often treated as an inevitable mechanism of society, a vast mindless mob mentality of quintillions of humans across the galaxy, and many in the series struggle against it only to fail. However, the plan itself is reliant upon cunning individuals like Salvor Hardin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salvor_Hardin) and Hober Mallow (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hober_Mallow) to make wise decisions, and capitalize on the trends. The Mule, a single individual with remarkable powers, topples the Foundation and nearly destroys the Seldon plan with his special, unforeseen abilities. In order to repair the damage the Mule inflicts, the Second Foundation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Foundation) deploys a plan which also turns upon individual reactions. Hari Seldon himself hopes that his Plan will "reduce 30,000 years of dark ages and barbarism to a single millennium." Psychohistory is based on group trends, and cannot predict with sufficient accuracy the effects of these individuals, and the Second Foundation's true purpose was to counter this flaw.
The following is a description of the inventor of Psychohistory, Hari Seldon, and of the science he developed.
Hari Seldon is the Intellectual hero of the foundation sereies. In his capacity as mathematics professor at Streeling University on Trantor, he developed psychohistory , allowing him to predict the future in probabilistic terms. His ability to predict disasters is the reason behind his nickname "Raven" Seldon.
Psychohistory is the name of a fictional science, which combined history (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History), psychology (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychology) and mathematical statistics (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics), in Isaac Asimov (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Asimov)'s Foundation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_Trilogy) universe, to create a (nearly) exact science of the actions of very large groups of people, such as the Galactic Empire (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galactic_Empire_%28Asimov%29). Asimov used the analogy of a gas (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas): in a gas, the motion of a single molecule is very difficult to predict, but the mass action (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_action) of the gas can be predicted to a high level of accuracy. Asimov applied this concept to the population of the fictional Galactic Empire, which numbered in the quadrillions (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadrillion). The character responsible for the science's creation, Hari Seldon (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hari_Seldon), established two postulates: that the population whose behaviour was modeled should be sufficiently large and that they should remain in ignorance of the results of the application of psychohistorical analyses.
Literary critics have described Asimov's psychohistory as a reformulation, either for better or worse, of Karl Marx (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx)'s theory of history, though Asimov denied any direct influence.[1] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29#_note-0) Psychohistory also also has echoes of work in the social sciences that by the 1960s would lead to attempts at large-scale social prediction and control such as Project Camelot (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Camelot) and modernization theory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modernization_theory).
We can obviously draw paralells here. Hari Seldon can be extrapolated to Enzo Valenzetti, and the character of Salvor Hardin (which actually sounds quite a bit like Alvar Hanso) helped forge the Foundation into what would save the galaxy.
Unfortunately, the foundation (and the galaxy) had their plans disrupted by a psychic known as "The Mule" who was able to manipulate and turn people's minds. He conquered the Galaxy and distorted the Foundation's mission to serve his own purpose.
Somehow, that sounds a bit like Thomas Mittlewerk. Thomas has apparently derailed the mission of the Hanso Foundation to suit his own needs, and it also appears that Alvar Hanso is missing. Mittelwerk also appears to be a very persuasive individual. Early casting descriptions for the character of "Thomas Jackson", who many people believe to be Mittlewerk, describe him as:
THOMAS JACKSON
Early to mid-40s.
A child prodigy in the sciences, Thomas Jackson soon learned that he could get as far in the world through Machiavellian diplomacy as with his intellect. Jackson is a friendly, convivial man - the kind of guy who can pour you a cup of coffee while making the argument that mass murder is a good thing... and you might just believe him.
Always pleasant and agreeable, Thomas Jackson is a consummate manipulator of people and events - never one to raise his voice or resort to anger, he is quite simply armed with the strength of his conviction and the power of his ideas...which would be fine, if his ideas weren't absolutely dangerous...
I'll update this theory as I get more ideas. As it is, lets count this as a supplemental allegorical comparison which goes hand-in-hand with Heuristics Theory.