Rugby World Cup 2007

[GrahamK]

This competition starts today. Official website (http://www.rugbyworldcup.com/index.html).

For the uninitiated it's being held in France (with a few games in Scotland and Wales).

There are 20 countries competing. Initially they're split into four pools.

POOL A
England
South Africa
Samoa
USA
Tonga

POOL B
Australia
Wales
Fiji
Canada
Japan

POOL C
New Zealand
Scotland
Italy
Romania
Portugal

POOL D
France
Ireland
Argentina
Georgia
Namibia

They play each other and the top two from each pool progress to the knock out stages.

The first match (France vs Argentina) is this evening.

Favourites to lift the trophy are New Zealand, although Australia and South Africa will prove tough opposition. France, England and Ireland may have outside chances, but realistically shouldn't be expected to win. Scotland and Wales should make up the numbers in the knockout stage.

I predict that France will beat Argentina this evening; but it won't be as easy as they'd want it to be. The weight of public expectation given that they're hosting the competition will be immense, and if they don't play convincing rugby in the first twenty minutes the crowd will begin to get restless. I'd estimate a winning margin of about twenty points - with a scoring flurry in the final ten minutes.

Am I correct in presuming that rugby is a sport that is largely unnoticed in USA? USA's first match is against England on September 8. It will be tough - USA doesn't have a marvellous record in this event. In fact USA has won only two games in World Cup history; both against Japan.

[King of Snake]

New Zealand will waltz it. They are by far the best team in the competition. They've got the best player in the world, Dan Carter pulling the strings in the backs and an incredibly strong pack. I'd go as far as to say that it is the best rugby team ever assembled.

Saying that, they were strong favourites last time out, and look what happened (they got knocked out in the semi's and England went on to win.)

Apart from New Zealand, I think the two other teams that could be in contention are South Africa and France (home advantage being a great asset). Although, you can never right off those damn Aussies, despite the fact that they are the weakest they have been for decades.

As for the England / USA game, I'm hoping the Yanks get a good mauling. However, England have been terrible for four years since their triumph last time out. I predict 35-7 England victory.

[GrahamK]

As for the England / USA game, I'm hoping the Yanks get a good mauling. However, England have been terrible for four years since their triumph last time out. I predict 35-7 England victory.
England's failure to build on their 2003 victory was simply staggering. Clive Woodward was obviously a talented coach, but was clearly focussed purely on that one competition with no thought for the long term future. England's play since has been dreadful - though (as a Scot) I'm not too disappointed by that!!! ;)

Having said that, England will comfortably beat USA. I'd suggest an even more emphatic scoreline. 50 point margin perhaps.

[GrahamK]

I predict that France will beat Argentina this evening; but it won't be as easy as they'd want it to be. The weight of public expectation given that they're hosting the competition will be immense, and if they don't play convincing rugby in the first twenty minutes the crowd will begin to get restless. I'd estimate a winning margin of about twenty points - with a scoring flurry in the final ten minutes.


Shows how much I know!

The scoring flurry never came. Throughout the match I presumed that at some point France would wake up and start playing as if this was a World Cup; but they never did! The home crowd was NOT happy.

It was as inept a French performance as I can remember seeing. That's not to take anything away from Argentina, who attacked the game from the first minute and thoroughly deserved their win.

This makes Pool D interesting. Ireland must now fancy themselves to top the pool. Which in turn means that if France qualify as runners-up they'll probably face New Zealand in the knockout stage, and that's a daunting prospect.

I cannot see anything like an upset today.

New Zealand will canter through against Italy - 30 points.
Australia will swamp Japan - 50 points
England will sweep past USA - 40 points

[GrahamK]

New Zealand 76 Italy 14
Australia 91 Japan 3
England 28 USA 10

The only surprise was how mediocre England were. If they're aiming for the semi-finals they'll need to step up several gears. New Zealand and Australia looked very comfortable; but it's basically just a warm up for them at the moment. The true test will come in the knockout stages.

Today's matches should go to form with easy victories for Scotland, South Africa and Ireland. Wales should also win, but I suspect Canada will be tougher opposition than might be expected...

[island_maverick]

England have been nowhere near the fludity going into the competition as required. You're right, it does stem back to 2003. Even though Woodward built a team for the moment, an equally big mistake was retaining and promoting Andy Robinson when Clive stepped down. That was time for a wholesale change, players and management.

I thought England looked fairly stable in the first half versus USA, or at least, consistent with their approach. Second half they seemed to fall away, losing cohesiveness and determination. Gah.. and that line-out, what a mess.

[King of Snake]

Wow, my prediction was nearly spot on. Someone dropped the ball (excuse the pun) by scheduling the England rugby game at the same time as the England football and cricket matches.

[GrahamK]

I thought England looked fairly stable in the first half versus USA, or at least, consistent with their approach. Second half they seemed to fall away, losing cohesiveness and determination. Gah.. and that line-out, what a mess.
England did what they had to do, but not much more. The same can be said today of Scotland, Wales and Ireland. Competent, but not spectacular.

After this weekend it's even harder to see any credible northern hemisphere contender.

[island_maverick]

That was one of the most pathetic displays I've ever seen. There's been some shockers over the years so I'll resist saying it was actually the worst I've seen from England.

This wasn't even men against boys, it was men against plancton.

Midway through the 2nd half there was even the sight of forwards trying to chip the ball over the top when in the middle of a melee.

In possession the first and foremost thought should have been for them to drive forward as a pack, not play chip and run into a packed defence. That's not even their job to chip the ball.

The message it sent out was that they were totally not up for it.

As for the line kicking, I'll resist the urge to blame Andy Farrell since he was dropped in it, but even so you would expect a pro to find touch more than he did.

It's not as if South Africa werre actually that great. Obviously they were far suerprior to England, and their kicking was very good, but they made a few handling errors that we failed to capitalise on and a lack of pace meant their defence was unlikely to be sliced open at any time during the game.

[GrahamK]

I hadn't posted about last night's match because I was finding it difficult to find words for how poor England were - and I didn't want to sound like a Scot taking the opportunity to gloat at English misfortune.

England were embarrassingly bad. As you say, mav, South Africa were competent and professional in their approach but they were not stellar in their quality.

There was not a single area of the game where England did well; it was all terrible. Sure - Jason Robinson had a couple of runs before his hamstring went - but they led nowhere. If I was an England fan who'd paid money and travelled to watch that match I'd have been disgusted. It was always predictable England would be beaten, but they didn't show any passion or competence whatsoever. Very poor.

On their respective performances against South Africa I'd actually make Samoa favourites to fill second spot in the pool.

New Zealand have just thumped the Portuguese 108-13. Predictable.

Can Wales upset the Aussies? I doubt it.

Ireland will hammer Georgia later this evening.

[TheBigCat]

So I take it the All-Blacks are the current favorites to win it all?

That's sort of a given, anyway, isn't it?

[GrahamK]

So I take it the All-Blacks are the current favorites to win it all?

That's sort of a given, anyway, isn't it?
The All Blacks are hot favourites - but it's not a foregone conclusion.

This is the 6th World Cup. New Zealand won the inaugral tournament in 1987; but amazingly haven't won it since!

Australia won in 1991 and 1999. South Africa won in 1995. England won in 2003.

This year it's hard to see New Zealand failing. Until, of course, they face the mighty Scotland on Sunday...:D

[King of Snake]

I'm so glad I missed the England v South Africa game. It sounded like an utter embarassment

[island_maverick]

You picked a good time to be on a beach far, far away.

[King of Snake]

Anyone watch England beat Tonga last night? 36-20 I think it was to England (I was pretty drunk watching it).

Comfortably their best performance of the tournament.

They now face Australia in the Quarte-finals. England have two hopes of winning: Bob Hope and no hope

[King of Snake]

After Ireland got stuffed by the Argies, the quarter-final looks like this:

England v Australia
Fiji v South Africa
New Zealand v France
The Argies v Scotland

[camelsmoker]

XV de France are going to get shellacked (chélaqued? :p) all over Millenium Stadium next Saturday.


All I can say is... ouch. It's going to sting.

[GrahamK]

I think it's likely to be an entirely southern hemisphere final four. Amazingly, I think Scotland have the best opportunity of any northern side to make the semi-finals; but they'll have to raise their game considerably.

[King of Snake]

The Argies look pretty good, in all fairness. I really can't see The Sweaties beating them

[King of Snake]

WOOOOOOOO!

England 12-10 Australia.

I don't think anyone in the world of rugby would have predicted an England victory.

It was a monumental performance. The forwards totally dominated the game and there were very few mistakes.

Bring on New Zealand

[island_maverick]

Talk about our pack destroying theirs. Awesome.

Who gives a monkeys it was four Johnny penalties. That just makes it all the more ironic, given how we've had 4 years of "Johnny won it for you".

I'm satisfied now. Getting to the quarters was just about expected, going into the semis is a bonus.

[GrahamK]

It was a brave display from England. The Australian forwards were really poor, and completely overwhelmed by the English.

What we saw today that has been noticeably absent for four years was a passion and desire amongst an English team as a whole. It's a sporting cliche, but they 'wanted it' more than the Australians.

Also, the Australians appeared to have limited confidence in their fly-half, Barnes. Some of his play looked very nervous. In such a pivotal position in such a crunch game, should they have opted for more experience?

If the All Blacks defeat France (which we all expect, but after this afternoon - who knows?) it will be tougher next week. New Zealand have a strong pack, and England will not get the amount of possession they enjoyed today.

What odds on a semi-final line-up of England vs. France and Scotland vs. Fiji? :D

[camelsmoker]

That was a terrific performance by England, and they absolutely dominated all over the pitch. Great job.

In a couple of hours, the All Blacks will most likely destroy les Bleus, but... I'm still going to watch, and hope for a repeat of the 1999 semi-final at Twickenham.

[GrahamK]

the All Blacks will most likely destroy les Bleus, but... I'm still going to watch, and hope for a repeat of the 1999 semi-final at Twickenham.

Wow! This result makes the English victory look positively predictable!

France 20 New Zealand 18.

Congrats France (and camel). Today must be the most shocking single day in Rugby World Cup history.

New Zealand bottled it again, and must think they'll never win the trophy for a second time.

France are proving that it doesn't matter how you start a tournament, it matters how you finish it.

The semi-final between France/England will be very tight.

[camelsmoker]

Wow.

All I can say is I can't remember being so happy to have been wrong. :D

France were defensively a little shaky in the first half, and missed two penalties, which had me screaming obscenities at my TV... but they came back in the second half with 2 tries and another penalty. The All Blacks were there, but just didn't look as menacing on offense as they had earlier in the match.

Legendary stuff. Oh, and next Saturday is going to be a classic, as well.

[island_maverick]

What a result for the French. The ground seemed to have that 'France 98' feeling about it.

It's fair to say NZ will be distraught - overwhelmingly the favourites, months and months of preparations.. all for a QF blow out.

All we need now is for a Scots effort tomorrow and it'll be 3 northern hemisphere teams in the last 4. Who'd have put any money on that! Still, better not speak too soon.. the Argies have looked fairly clever so far, I'm saying that one is too close to call.

[GrahamK]

Scotland need to raise their game tomorrow if they're to trouble the Argentinians. But the right temperament, and the precision kicking of Chris Paterson, might just be enough.

The other factor is that Argentina will possibly now be thinking that they have a genuine chance of winning the trophy, and that could either spur them on to greater achievement or detract from their focus on this particular match.

[island_maverick]

The other factor is that Argentina will possibly now be thinking that they have a genuine chance of winning the trophy, and that could either spur them on to greater achievement or detract from their focus on this particular match.Bingo! Graham, it's by no means unreasonable to think that the second option has more chance of ringing true.

[King of Snake]

Wow.

Congrats to France. Can't wait for Saturday.

I've got a sneaky feeling about that one

[GrahamK]

South Africa 37 Fiji 20

Finally a predictable result! However, the scoreline doesn't do justice to the Fijians. They scored two excellent tries whilst down to fourteen players, but at the end of the day lacked the power up front to compete with South Africa.

I'd expect a France - South Africa final now (apologies to any England fans who think I'm being unfair).

[King of Snake]

I agree Graham. Fiji player superb rugby, and the scoreline flattered The Springboks. They've easily been the most entertaining team in the competition.

They can go home with their heads held high

[GrahamK]

Argentina 19 Scotland 13

A thoroughly unimpressive match. Congratulations to Argentina who were certainly the better team tonight.

Scotland's poor discipline in the first half, especially at the maul, gave all the initiative to Argentina. And there were too many unforced errors, most noticeably from the Lamont brothers.

Argentina are a strong side, but only if you allow them to dictate the style of play. When Scotland started playing wider in the final ten minutes it became a different match.

I think South Africa will be too much for Argentina next week - so I'm sticking with my prediction of a South Africa vs. France final.

[camelsmoker]

Argentina are a strong side, but only if you allow them to dictate the style of play. When Scotland started playing wider in the final ten minutes it became a different match.Agreed.

Scotland looked like they had a chance to come back, but made a couple of (imo) very bad tactical mistakes in the final 5 minutes. First, when they decided not to go for the penalty, which would have put them within 3 points, and instead chose to send it to touch, and go for the try. Then, seconds before the end of regulation time, Scotland had a golden opportunity to win, but Parks' chip was way too wide.

I agree with your South Africa - France prediction, too.

[island_maverick]

It's a shame the Scots weren't a little more up 'em in the first half. It all seemed a bit meek.

And the opportunity at the end was there to be taken by Parks, even if it had been mostly a one-sided game the other way. That's what going to eat at them for a few days - the wasted chance.

[TheBigCat]

Okay, so we are through to the semis and the match-up are England - France and South Africa - Argentina, right?

And yeah, great job by Les Bleus taking out the All-Blacks.

[King of Snake]

Okay, so we are through to the semis and the match-up are England - France and South Africa - Argentina, right?

And yeah, great job by Les Bleus taking out the All-Blacks.

That's the one Cat.

I really cant wait for the Saturday. England are playing Estonia in the football then France in the rugby.

I've got a sneaky feeling England might do it.

[island_maverick]

I've got a sneaky feeling England might do it.I think they'll beat Estonia, too.

:D

[camelsmoker]

Nice, guys.

France is going to beat the Faroe Islands... and England. :D

[King of Snake]

I'm gonna call it now.

England vs The Onion Bahji's in the final.

It will be like the Falklands all over again.

It will also be like WW2. A battle on French soil, but the French aren't involved

[GrahamK]

From a neutral perspective the worst possible outcome would be an England vs. Argentina final. They're two teams who like to play it close and tight amongst the pack, which can be effective - but it isn't attractive.

[island_maverick]

Half of your worst possible outcome has so far come true, Graham.

It clearly wasn't pretty, but I admire the determination of the England team to dig in and win almost by sheer willpower. Apart from that early gift, they never looked like scoring a try whereas the French seemed more dangerous throughout.

The turning point was that penalty in the last ten minutes for a chop across Jason Robinson's face. Up until then England looked to have no way of scoring, all France had to was not give a close penalty away. D'oh.

As for the drop goal by Johnny in the dying minutes, it was another iconic moment in his career. When you watch it on replay you get a realisation just how little time he had to take aim and drop kick it. Simply awesome, IMO.

[GrahamK]

England's strength and determination was definitely impressive.

Wilkinson is a great kicker - although I think some of the non-kicking aspects of his game are questionable. His drop-kicking especially is awesome.

What has surprised me in this World Cup (not just with England) is the inability of the more expansive teams to impose their style upon the game. Those teams who want to keep it close and tight seem able to dictate how each match is played. (For example; Argentina v Scotland, England v Australia, Argentina v Ireland).

If that trend continues then Argentina will give South Africa even more trouble than I expected. If, however, South Africa take their opportunities to spread the ball wide and stretch the Argentinian defence I think they'll win quite comfortably. The same applies if it's an England v South Africa final - an expansive game will mean a comfortable South Africa victory.

But, anyway, credit to England for turning the form book upside down for the second week in a row. :Cheers:

[King of Snake]

I've got a sneaky feeling England might do it.

I love being right!

Bring on the Onion Bahji's

[island_maverick]

I love being right!It had to happen sooner or later. :p

[King of Snake]

Ahem.

See the soccer thread.

I could have sworn that I called the England score as well :)

[island_maverick]

I could have sworn that I called the England score as well :)So you did.. I had, er, 'forgotten' about that.

Still, lightening doesn't strike three times. :p :D

[island_maverick]

I didn't make any comment or prediction before the semi, so I won't tempt fate and do so before the final.

[Lostaway]

I didn't make any comment or prediction before the semi, so I won't tempt fate and do so before the final.

:p

Being the Irish I am, I'd love to see England lose. :p no offence.

[King of Snake]

:p

Being the Irish I am, I'd love to see England lose. :p no offence.

Jealousy is a terrible thing

[Lostaway]

Jealousy is a terrible thing

True. But I can admit that Irish are rubbish at everything they do. Ecspecially sports!

[TheBigCat]

Not everything. Y'all are great with words.

[King of Snake]

Ah. So close, yet so far.

England 6 - 15 South Africa.

It was an unbelievable effort. we absolutely battered them in the second and scored a try that was disallowed for some reason. I'm so proud of the players.Every single one of them gave their absolute all. It's great to see England players playing with passion, which is a lot more than can be said about thr England football team.

I'm not too disappointed, I'm just glad that we didn't get spanked

[Lostaway]

Not everything. Y'all are great with words.

You're not my english Teacher. *grumbles*

[GrahamK]

I was away for a week, but managed to watch the final.

South Africa were by far the better side - although England didn't crumble. Congratulations South Africa.

Four points I'd note.

1. England lost because ultimately, when South Africa looked a little vulnerable, England had no gears to step up. They have proved themselves this World Cup to be an excellent grinding team, but they lack an ability to mix it up effectively - they're easy to read. South Africa deserved the victory on the night, and over the tournament as a whole.

2. Sadly for all England fans the 'try' was correctly disallowed. Mark Cueto's foot clearly slides across the turf and makes contact with the line before rising into the air as the ball is grounded. Under the rules of rugby, the moment at which his foot touched the line the ball was out of play - seconds before he grounded it.

3. Toby Flood should have been sin-binned for his push on Percy Montgomery when following up a kick behind the South African tryline. Montgomery didn't have the ball when Flood shoved him. The fact that Montgomery fell over a hoarding and knocked over a television camera was dramatic, but irrelevant. Flood took him out when he didn't have the ball, and he should have been off for ten minutes.

4. This will probably be the last World Cup that South Africa win for a long time. Their government is bringing in a quota system for all national representative sides (including cricket and soccer), and soon a certain percentage of players picked must be black. The arguments for and against this are many, and I'm not interested in starting that kind of discussion, but it does mean that the majority of top class South African rugby players (who are white) will have less opportunity to represent their country.

[TheBigCat]

I don't know about that last point. The All-Blacks do alright with a team which is largely composed of Maoris.

[GrahamK]

I don't know about that last point. The All-Blacks do alright with a team which is largely composed of Maoris.
True - but that's to do with the traditions of the game in New Zealand. It's very popular (always has been) among the Maori and Pacific Island communities and so the good players have developed over generations.

Historically, because largely of apartheid, rugby was basically an all-white sport in South Africa. Therefore there's no rugby tradition among the black community. Of course, over time, plenty of brilliant black South African rugby players will develop - but right now they simply don't exist in sufficient numbers to keep the national side at the top of world rugby.

[island_maverick]

It's a rocky road to discuss, but it's a riduculous situation IMO.

I do truly understand what is considered to be the wider benefits and, although I am certainly not qualified to critique the motivations behind it, whenever sport is used so overwhelmingly for socio-political reasons I have to roll my eyes.