Chance / Coincidence / Design

[vortexz83]

Sorry if any of these have been discussed before (as far as I can tell they haven't been discussed together like this), and sorry if it's a bit stream-of-consciousness. Just wanted to get these thoughts out there. After all, we all need something to do before episode 19 airs.

Observation:
There's a lot of play on chance, coincidence and design.

- Claire's run-in with the psychic. Is it coincidence that the person tied to the psychic is the only person on the island we know believes in astrology? Probably not - but only because someone more down-to-earth like Jack isn't likely to agree to go to a psychic in the first place. (And I'm talking here about both narrative device, and looking at this as though the characters were real.)


- Locke was making the hallucinagenic mixture before Boone ever mentioned that he was going to tell Shannon about the hatch. Locke seems to know a lot about what's going on in people's heads, or at least be damn good at guessing. Did looking into the heart of the island grant him some sort of power? Did he have it before? Or is it not a power at all, but just a good judge of character?


-We have luck so extreme it seems like a design: Walt's good luck vs Hurley's bad luck. Interesting to note that they are pitted against each other across the backgammon board. (By the way, who played black and who played white?) ((Also, imo that was nice foreshadowing in making Hurley the one to play Walt - he's probably the only person on the island who can afford to blow $83,000 gambling on backgammon with a kid))


-What happened to Hurley's bad luck? As far as I can tell, he's been fine since landing on the island. Sure, it hasn't been a picnic for any of the survivors, but he's no longer the walking disaster-zone depicted in his flashback.


-The past links between the survivors - will this form a line or a circle? So far we have (note that I haven't included the Jack-Sun/Jin airport link. All the people on the plane were in that airport somewhere, I don't think it counts.)

Sun/Jin-Hurley-Locke Shannon/Boone-Sawyer-Jack Walt/Michael Kate Charlie Sayid Claire

A couple more links could make quite a nice chain of coincidence there. (Though we have only four episodes left this season, and that's not enough assuming one link per episode.


Just to explain where I've been going with this - I think that one of the themes likely to emerge is the old favourite "You make your own luck". Or perhaps the more complex "You make your own luck... or /do/ you?"

We human beings are marvellous at seeing meaning in things. Imagine I shuffled a pack of cards in front of you and drew out all four aces, one after the other. Amazing, right? Then imagine that I shuffled it and drew out the 7 of diamonds, the 2 of clubs, the Jack of spades and the 3 of spades. Pretty boring, right? Well, I'll have you know that the chances of each of those events happening is exactly the same. It's the significance which we assign events which colours the way we view them.

Something to think about.

[ThatHippieKid]

Did looking into the heart of the island grant him some sort of power?

Good question, I've been wondering that myself. I want to know if he had those "powers" before the plane crashed, or after his miraculous recovery.

[Australopithecus]

Walt's good luck vs Hurley's bad luck.
Walt had good luck? His mother died and his plane crashed. Even Locke told Walt that "he's having a bad month" in part two of the pilot.
Well, I'll have you know that the chances of each of those events happening is exactly the same.
I'm not sure what your point is. Pulling out four Aces is as amazing as pulling out the 7 of diamonds, the 2 of clubs, the Jack of spades and the 3 of spades; assuming that you predicted which cards you were about to pull out.

[ThatHippieKid]

Walt had good luck? His mother died and his plane crashed. Even Locke told Walt that "he's having a bad month" in part two of the pilot.

I was actually thinking that too. The oinly time I've seen him have good luck is the backgammon thing... and even that, to me, is because of his "powers", that he willed those dice to roll how he needed them. I do not think that is luck.

[vortexz83]

From Episode 11:
Walt
C'mon double 6's, double 6's. (He rolls double 6's). Yeah.

Hurley
Aw, you've got to be kidding me,

Walt
I'm lucky.

Hurley
No one is that lucky.

Walt
My dad said I was the luckiest person he ever knew.

Sorry I didn't have time to reference anything before. I should mention that I was making the point (or trying to - my fault if I didn't make it clear) that I think Lost is already asking us to question 'luck'. The writers do seem to be implying that Walt can will certain things to happen - but he thinks he's just lucky, because that's what his step-dad told him, and Hurley thinks the same thing - perhaps because of his own experience with 'luck'. I don't know about the death of Walt's mother, but he seems to be pretty happy on the island. I certainly wouldn't say he thinks that the crash was necessarily a bad thing.

(By the way, in looking up that script I managed to answer my own question - Hurley played black, Walt played white)

As for the cards, Australopithecus, assuming that I didn't make any prediction at all about which cards I would pull out, the average person would be impressed by me pulling out four aces (Most likely saying something along the lines of "Wow, what are the chances of that?"), but unimpressed by my pulling out four other arbitrary cards. My point wasn't how amazing or not-amazing either would be, but simply the fact that most people (and if you understand probabilities, then it's fair enough that you're not one of those people - I'm not either) would assign more importance to the aces. They would therefore think it less likely that such a thing could happen by chance.

[Australopithecus]

I'm not really understanding what you're trying to get at. If you are pulling out random cards, then the chances of picking out four Aces is much lower than picking out the 4 random cards, as long as you AREN'T TRYING to pick them out.

[rknorton91]

The point is even each ace is a different unique card and is no different really than pulling out any other card. However our minds are automatically trained to recognize the fact it is an Ace thus you pulled out the only 4 aces in the whole deck. So it is phenomenal in that aspect.
But as the saying goes even a stopped watch has correct time twice a day. Just because you happen to pull out four phenomenal cards one time does not necessarily mean you will do it the next time.


I do find it interesting further up this thread talking about Hurley losing money to Walt. That it is I think the first time since Hurley one the money in the lottery using the numbers that he has lost any of his money. Up till now his money has continually grown despite the bad luck

[Australopithecus]

But pulling out four cards out of a deck of 52 at random and having them all be Aces is a lot harder than pulling out four cards of different value, as long as you don't predict which cards you're about to pull out.

[rknorton91]

the chances of pulling out 4 cards at random and it being all 4 aces out of a 52 card deck is no greater than pulling out 4 cards at random and it being the 7 of hearts, 3 of spades, king of diamond, and 10 of hearts

Let me say this another way
If I said I am going to pull out all 4 aces out of this deck and did it. I t would be no more astounding than if I said I am going to pull out the 7 of hearts, 3 of spades, king of diamond, and 10 of hearts and then actually did it.
The odds are the same

[Australopithecus]

Okay, I understand what you're trying to say, and I agree. Although, personally, I would be amazed if you predicted what cards you were going to pull out and did it, regardless of the actual cards. Pulling out four Aces is only extraordinary if you weren't planning on pulling them out.

[jaystao]

Yea if you actually 'said' you were going to pull out those numbers before you pulled them out that would be astounding..... or you are cheating. The writers sleeves have aces all the way up so theres nothing astounding about that. Its the way they pull of their magic 'trick', that will be interesting.

[LostInWilderness]

I think coincidence has no place in Lost. Chance does. Hurley is lucky. He's the only person to ask Sawyer for something and get it without payment or threat. Hurley is clearly lucky, and the people surrounding Hurley are clearly unlucky. Both are consistent themes.

Walt's situation (which I never caught until I read this forum) has nothing to do with luck. He makes things happen with his mind. That's not luck, it's power, and right now he doesn't know he has that power.

Everything else on this island happens by design. Locke reached an epiphany, or maybe a Jungian death/rebirth of consciousness, when his legs were healed. He has no magic, he just has a higher level of consciousness. The ties between the lostaways are by design. The pealing of the layers of the onion are by design. Claire and her soon-to-be-born baby came by design. Who survived on the island is by design.

The numbers are clearly by design (another detail I utterly missed until I read this forum.) I doubt they have any significance beyond the internal consistency of "Lost."

One of the things I love about "Lost" is it's incredible attention to detail. That's the only way to get consistent suspension of disbelief that intrigues a large audience. This didn't happen by coincidence or luck, it was design.

[rottenralf]

the odds of pulling the ace of spades out of a deck of cards is 1:52, the odds of pulling the ace of clubs out next is 1:51, the ace of diamonds 1:50, and the ace of hearts 1;49. the odds of pulling out the 7 of diamonds first is 1:52, then the 2 of clubs, 1:51, the jack of spades 1:50, and the 3 of spades 1:49.
The odds stay the same, but predicting you are going to pull all four aces out means the odds change to 1:52 x 1:51 x 1:50 x 1:49.
I don't know if helps clear it up, or just muddies the water.

[drabauer]

bumping for summer musing, as the issues are stated clearly

[BlackCasket]

Then imagine that I shuffled it and drew out the 7 of diamonds, the 2 of clubs, the Jack of spades and the 3 of spades. Pretty boring, right? Well, I'll have you know that the chances of each of those events happening is exactly the same. It's the significance which we assign events which colours the way we view them.
assuming that I didn't make any prediction at all about which cards I would pull out, the average person would be impressed by me pulling out four aces (Most likely saying something along the lines of "Wow, what are the chances of that?") , but unimpressed by my pulling out four other arbitrary cards.

Math problem here with the original statement.
4 Aces: Probability of first Ace is 4/52 (or 1/13), second Ace is 3/51 (or 1/17), third Ace is 2/50 (or 1/25) and fourth Ace is 1/49.
1/13 * 1/17 * 1/25 * 1/49 = 1/270725 (approx .00000369)

The pulling out of four arbitrary cards: Well, the problem here is if you are saying you can pull out anything (like the original poster has stated) the probability is 1 for all four events (52/52, 51/51, 50/50, 49/49). So let's say I can pull a 7, 2, 3, and J. That would be 4/52 (1/13), 4/51, 4/50 (2/25), and 4/49.
1/13 * 4/51 * 2/25 * 4/49 = 32/812175 (approx .0000394)

32/812175 > 1/270725 or .00003940
>
.00000369
Therefore, according to the original setup, the probability of pulling out 4 Aces in a row is much less likely to happen than pulling out four arbitrary cards.
Now, a few people have changed the parameters by saying if you call the cards you will pull then the odds are the same regardless. This will change the math based on if you call the specific order of the Aces, card & suit, just card etc... Regardless, the original statement was made that the only difference was our perception of Aces versus other cards, but unless you call the cards, which the original poster said not to do, then pulling 4 Aces in a row is more amazing probability wise than 4 random cards.

[lostmio]

Aces: Probability of first Ace is 4/52 (or 1/13), second Ace is 3/51 (or 1/17), third Ace is 2/50 (or 1/25) and fourth Ace is 1/49.
1/13 * 1/17 * 1/25 * 1/49 = 1/270725 (approx .00000369)

The product of of 4/52*3/51*2/50*1/49 is actually .0000000000006.

The logic is also somewhat askew, but yours and previous points is correct, the chance of drawing 4 of a kind is miniscule in comparison to drawing 4 different values, even if the latter is predicted.

[BlackCasket]

The product of of 4/52*3/51*2/50*1/49 is actually .0000000000006

Ummm... how do you figure? I just did that math again and got the same result.

4*3*2*1 = 24

52*51*50*49 = 6,497,400

24/6,497,400 = 0.0000036 on a calcultator that only shows 8 places

[Pirate328]

I figure that Hurley's and Walt's Bad/Good/Powers only affect those around them. Had Hurley taken the dynamite Artz wouldn't have blown up. Then again that kind of goes against what i said in my "Why did Artz blow up?" thread.

[Noav Sigless]

I cringe every time I read the word "Powers".
Locke isn't a good judge of character, he has the amazing super power to judge a person's character.
Super-Walt has the power to summon polar bears, birds and aquatic kidnappers but he can't find his own dog.
"Powers'' sounds so comic book and cartoony.
Let's try some new words, like "talent" or "ability".



OK, I'll stop ranting now.

[Warthawg1]

Ahh.. the age old mystical debate of probabilities, and realistic probabilities. The probability of pulling out 4 aces in a row is definitely much lower than any other 4 random cards.

I saw it demonstrated once with math, that showed exactly what those probabilities are, and how they decrease exponentially with each additional ace that would be drawn. Now I don't remember how all the math works, but the entire principle of card counting in gambling is predicated on the fact that the probabilities the second card will be also be an ace drop dramatically.

To believe that the odds 4 aces can be drawn out of a deck in random order is the same as 4 random other cards is the same as saying I have the exact same probability of drawing a royal flush, as I do any other hand involving a completely random selection of 5 other cards. I can play 50 hands of poker, and odds are that I will not draw a royal flush, but they are pretty good I will draw 50 hands that are anything BUT a royal flush.

[LostInWilderness]

This idea is being batted around again.

[spin61]

I don't know if anyone has mentioned this or not... but in the In Translation episode when Jin made his first visit to Byung Han's house to relay the message from his father-in-law, Han's daughter was watching TV, and I could swear that she was watching a news segment with Hurley in it. It looked like Hurley was getting out of a car. Maybe it was news of his big lotto win being shown in Korea??

[sarelisheaq]

Much of it could still be coincidence. Everything doesn't have to be explained by one and no other. Remember what Eko said: Don't confuse fate with coincidence. (Of course to be fair, we don't know much about Eko and his 'abilities' yet.) Many things sufficiently molecularly complex in life that we can't explain it to this day are based on slim-to-none chance. Slim can mean eventually it's bound to happen. I think that makes sense.

Oh, anyway, I think it's a combination of those things. Chance and coincidence (and design because there obviously is/was experimentation going on.)

As for Walt, yes, he did mention he was lucky, but maybe he meant 'lucky' as in going against the odds, good or bad. Or maybe it was just in the last few days before crashing, he became more unlucky and the events bringing him to the island overrode his luck. Who knows? Very interesting discussion though.

[LostViking]

Imagine I shuffled a pack of cards in front of you and drew out all four aces, one after the other. Amazing, right? Then imagine that I shuffled it and drew out the 7 of diamonds, the 2 of clubs, the Jack of spades and the 3 of spades. Pretty boring, right? Well, I'll have you know that the chances of each of those events happening is exactly the same.

Ask any pit boss in Vegas, card counting works becuase the chance of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th ace being drawn becomes more and more improbable.

So does the chance that the many many character intersections we have seen were all just coincidence. To be fair, this post was made before the second season. We have now seen that each back story contains at least one other Lostie. If that happened once or twice out of the 14 back stories, I might agree that it's just coincidence. But all of them?

[GrahamK]

So does the chance that the many many character intersections we have seen were all just coincidence. To be fair, this post was made before the second season. We have now seen that each back story contains at least one other Lostie. If that happened once or twice out of the 14 back stories, I might agree that it's just coincidence. But all of them?

I couldn't agree more. And surely the whole Mr.Eko / drug plane connection puts the final nail in the coffin of coincidence.

In isolation it is a slim possibility that Eko could "coincidentally" crash land on the same island as the drug plane. But not at the same time as Shannon crashes alongside the ex-husband of the woman involved in her father's fatal crash... not at the same time as Jack crashes on the same island as a stranger he once met in a stadium... not at he same time as Hurley crashes on the island that seems to be the source of his cursed numbers... not at the same time as Locke crashes on the same island as someone else who had Randy as a boss.

[John Charles]

But what are the odds that one of those anything BUT a royal flush hands will be drawn again?

To be fair, this post was made before the second season. We have now seen that each back story contains at least one other Lostie.

Even Sayid's and/or Eko's?

[LostInWilderness]

Some of what is going on is coincidence, some is not. Eko and the plane cannot be coincidence, but part of the fun is separating coincidence from design.